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Bazball now has a place in the dictionary, inevitably drawing extra attention due to its English connection. Years before it gained notoriety, Baz had a ball against opponents in the 2015 ODI World Cup. Brendon McCullum’s New Zealand steamrolled their opponents at home to make it to their maiden final. But MCG was clearly out of their syllabus. And hosts Australians triumphed.

Four years later, another World Cup final and under Kane Williamson, the Kiwis were less fire and more ice. Arguably, the better team at Lord’s, the law enforcers and the rules, did them. They won the hearts, but England left with the trophy.

They say the third time’s a charm. Can they overcome the hurdle on Sunday and lift the trophy at Ahmedabad, the very venue where they kicked off the 2023 edition by humiliating the defending champions?

Oh, hold on. Before this, there lies their trial by fire — the Wankhede challenge in Mumbai, facing off against the formidable hosts, the mighty Indians, a side that has mirrored the past World Cup greatness only matched by the West Indies in the 1970s and Australia in the 2000s.

New Zealand’s host problem in ODI World Cups

New Zealand may have achieved the remarkable feat of being the only side to reach the ODI World Cup semi-final for the fifth consecutive time, but their fortunes have been less favourable against host nations in knockout games. In 2011, they faced defeat in the semis against Sri Lanka in Colombo, were trampled by Australia in the 2015 final in Melbourne, and witnessed England clinch the cup by the “barest of margins’ in London.

Sri Lanka, Australia, and England were fine sides expected to pose formidable challenges. However, the current Indian side is a different beast. They have exhibited an exceptional brand of cricket that has left spectators in awe and opponents searching for solutions. Facing this Indian side, who have won all their nine league names, is undoubtedly a daunting prospect, the last thing any opponent would desire.

India, so what?

Over several decades, India have engaged in intense rivalries across various formats. Whether against Pakistan, Australia, or England, India have participated in some iconic duels. However, the unassuming Kiwis, the perennial good guys loved by all, have consistently been the primary source of Indian heartbreaks in ICC events.

In the fourteen completed matches against New Zealand in ICC tournaments across various formats, India has secured victories in only four encounters, with their most recent win occurring in the league game last month. Notably, this triumph in ICC tournaments marked a significant gap of twenty years. In fact, New Zealand stands out as one of the rare sides in this tournament that tested India.

In the 1990s, India faced setbacks in both World Cup encounters (1992 and 1999) against New Zealand. Even during India’s victorious 2007 T20 World Cup campaign, their lone defeat came to New Zealand’s hands. In the 2016 T20 World Cup, New Zealand outclassed and outwitted hosts India in their spin game. However, the Kiwis have inflicted the most poignant wounds on India during the most critical junctures.

In 2000, a young Indian side led by Sourav Ganguly neared Champions Trophy victory, but the Chris Cairns juggernaut crushed Indian hopes in the final. Nearly two decades later, the dream of an Indian World Cup triumph was shattered by Kiwi seamers on a fateful morning in Manchester. Despite topping the league stage until the semis, a brief spell of exceptional seam bowling saw India eliminated. The match, most remembered for Martin Guptill’s precision throw that dismissed MS Dhoni, dashed the hopes of over a billion. Two years later, India faced two more heartbreaks at the hands of the Kiwis — first, the loss in the World Test Championship final, and then a thrashing in their must-win game during the 2021 T20 World Cup.

In his column for the ICC, Ross Taylor writes, “Four years ago, India went into the semifinal in Manchester as the form side in the tournament, while we were more focused on ensuring our net run rate would keep Pakistan out of reach for the final spot in the top four. This time around, India are even bigger favourites, at home and having played so well during the group stage. But when we have nothing to lose, New Zealand teams can be dangerous. If there is a team that India will be nervous facing, it will be this New Zealand side.”

Obviously, we can imagine from where the Kiwi great draws his confidence from.

The Wankhede Factor and Tom Latham

Mumbai’s Wankhade Stadium holds some special memories for the Kiwis. Just under two years ago, Kiwi spinner Ajaz Patel etched his name in history, becoming only the third cricketer to claim a perfect ten in a Test.

In their nearly seven decades of playing in India, New Zealand have won only two Tests in India, their second and last coming in 1988 at Wankhede. John Bracewell and Richard Hadlee united to bring down a solid Indian side.

Shifting focus to ODIs, before their 2017-18 tour of India, New Zealand had contested two ODIs at the venue, both during the 2011 World Cup. They secured a win against Canada but faced defeat against Sri Lanka in their group-stage encounters.

Six years on…

New Zealand probably thought that Latham could do a de Kockor Gilchrist. In the 2016-17 home season, New Zealand entertained this idea, entrusting the wicket-keeping duties to the twenty-four-year-old Tom Latham, who excelled as a specialist opener. However, the outcome was far from ideal. In the five home ODIs against Australia and South Africa, the opener-keeper Latham managed only nine runs at an average of 1.8, including three ducks.

When New Zealand toured India in late 2017, they adopted a more practical approach. Latham was strategically moved to the middle order, leveraging his strength against spin bowling.

The first ODI was played at Wankhede, where Virat Kohli chose to bat, and he crafted a fine hundred, overcoming the brilliance of Trent Boult. India’s total of 280 seemed enough after New Zealand were reduced to 80 for three in the 18th over. However, Latham and Taylor orchestrated a remarkable turnaround with a double-hundred partnership, securing a memorable victory. Latham’s unbeaten 103 off 102 balls marked a pivotal moment in Kiwi cricket history, establishing him as their go-to wicketkeeper-batsman and solidifying his place in the middle order.

Latham continues to play a pivotal role in the Kiwi setup, serving as their wicketkeeper, expected to anchor the middle order, and taking on captaincy duties in the absence of Williamson. However, the past year has been far from the best for the left-hander. Since his remarkable century against the visiting Indians in November 2022, Latham’s ODI batting has seen a steep decline, with an average of only 27 and a strike rate of less than 80. As a keeper-batter, his numbers further drop to 22.5. During this phase, except for the Australian pair of Alex Carey and Josh Inglis, Latham has recorded the poorest numbers among all his keeper-batter contemporaries. 

Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, and Williamson have had fine outings in the World Cup and covered up for the underperforming Latham. Much like the evening in 2017, New Zealand will be optimistic that Wankhede can serve as the stage to rejuvenate Latham’s form.

For India, the Wankhede holds a special place, primarily due to the dazzling April night of 2011, etched forever in the history books with their World Cup win. However, beyond this historic triumph, the venue hasn’t been consistently joyful for the Indian side, as they have secured victory in only nine out of their 21 ODIs there. In 1987, Graham Gooch swept India out of the World Cup in the semis, Australia emerged victorious in the 1996 World Cup, and the West Indies butchered them in a six-hitting contest during the 2016 T20 World Cup semis.

The strategy bit…

All said and done, exploring history and drawing parallels can be captivating, offering insights into the past, but ultimately, it all culminates on the significant day.

As the teams gear up for the semis, the reverberations of Glenn Maxwell’s brilliance at Wankhede from the previous week still linger. While that chase was an extraordinary exception, the conventional wisdom of winning the toss and opting to bat prevails at this venue. The ball tends to seam and swing under lights, particularly during dusk, making it a challenging condition for batting. However, as the night progresses, batting tends to become more manageable. Ask Maxwell or recall Sri Lanka, who once appeared poised to be bowled out for under 40 against India, or reflect on England’s effort to salvage some pride against the Proteans.

But then again, you can’t plan for the toss but the approach. Rohit Sharma knows more about Wankhede than anyone else, so does Jasprit Bumrah —two of India’s principal architects in this spectacular campaign. On the other side, there’s Boult in the opposition camp, well-versed in the intricacies of these conditions. Should India find themselves bowling first, anticipate Rohit adjusting his bludgeoning approach as he steps onto the pitch at dusk. If New Zealand is batting second, Ravindra and Conway will undoubtedly be vigilant of the looming threat. The Indian bowling attack is arguably the best-performing attack in the history of all World Cups. No team would want another ‘thirty minutes of poor cricket’ to define their World Cup campaign.

Favourites

The railway tracks embracing the Wankhede Stadium form Mumbai’s pulsating lifelines. Around eight million travel in local trains daily, a number dwarfing the entire population of New Zealand, standing at five million. Over 20 million live in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Add this to the weight of a billion-plus hopes and prayers, and you unravel the pressure resting on this Indian team—an immense force that the Kiwis are poised to confront.

Setting aside prayers and hopes, the statistics tell you the story. This Indian side have emerged victorious in all nine league games, showcasing a pristine record. Similarly, their 2023 win-loss ratio stands at an impressive 4.8, with triumphs in 24 out of their completed 29 ODIs. On the contrary, the injury-marred New Zealand have encountered a more challenging journey, securing victories in only five of their nine league games. This year, they have won 13 out of their completed 28 ODIs. The numbers clearly show that India enters this clash as the undeniable favourites.

India’s likely XI: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj.

New Zealand’s likely XI: Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson (c), Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman/Jimmy Neesham, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson.

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